Senegal rating: Moody’s downgrades to Caa2, government disputes its methodology

Moody’s has downgraded Senegal’s sovereign rating to Caa2, with a negative outlook. The decision extends a series of downgrades since October 2024, against a backdrop of the hidden debt case and public disagreements between the agency and Senegalese authorities.

A downgrade in several stages

On 4 October 2024, Moody’s assigned Senegal a B1 rating. In February 2025, the agency lowered it to B3, with a negative outlook. A further downgrade followed in October 2025, when the rating was set at Caa1, again with a negative outlook.

The Caa2 rating is therefore the fourth assessment cited over this period, following B1, B3 and Caa1. At every stage mentioned since February 2025, the agency’s outlook has remained negative.

The government’s disagreement

When the rating was downgraded from B3 to Caa1 in October 2025, the Ministry of Finance and Budget publicly challenged Moody’s analysis. The government considered that the decision was based on assumptions it regarded as speculative, subjective and biased.

The authorities argued that the rating did not reflect the country’s economic fundamentals or the measures undertaken to ensure fiscal stability and debt sustainability. They notably highlighted the Economic and Social Recovery Plan, as well as the National Assembly’s adoption of revisions to the General Tax Code and a new Investment Code.

The government also criticised the agency for relying on what it considered partial and premature justifications, as well as undisclosed sources. The new Caa2 rating therefore comes amid a relationship already marked by this official challenge to Moody’s methodology.